rotator
rotator
rotator
rotator
rotator
rotator
rotator
News

Met Office expects active hurricane season

Wednesday 26, May 2010

 

Met Office expects active hurricane season

 

Early indications show it could be an active year for the North Atlantic tropical storm season. The Met Office will publish its initial forecast for the season, which runs from June to November, within the next month, but key indications point to an active season.

 

 

 

For the past three years, the Met Office forecast has given good indication of the number of storms and their combined strength (Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE Index) in its range. Last season recorded just nine tropical storms, making it one of the quietest for a decade, but 2010 looks set to be more active.

 

Joanne Camp, climate scientist at the Met Office, said: “There are key indicators, such as sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, which determine how active a storm season is likely to be. These indicators currently suggest above-normal activity for the upcoming season. Certainly the current conditions create a favourable environment for tropical storms. These influences are represented in our forecasting system and will have an impact on the forecast.”

 

This year the Met Office has moved to a new prediction system called GloSea4. The new generation model has better representation of the complex physical processes that cause tropical storms and hurricanes to form. It is hoped this will further improve the accuracy of the forecast.

 

One of the key indicators for a tropical storm season is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which affects sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and, remotely, conditions in the North Atlantic. It’s therefore vital to be able to accurately predict the ENSO cycle, and GloSea4 has shown good skill in such predictions.

 

Observations show there is a declining El Niño, meaning tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures are cooling. This has a tendency to increase the likelihood of tropical storms in the North Atlantic. Met Office predictions show this decline is likely to continue throughout the North Atlantic tropical storm season.

 

Forecasts and background information on tropical storms can be found on our tropical cyclones pages.

 

 

 

 

Bookmark and Share

 

^ back to top

 

Find the best deals available today

The grey menu on the right is your best friend. Always check before you travel.

Plan your trips with the help of great resources

More and more travellers think that researching and planning a European city break is half the fun and they're not interested in pre-arranged trips or escorted tours. Self-guided tours offer a lot of advantages but require some guidance and good resources.

 

Clean, green and very pristine

Top 10 most environmentally pure countries

With the recent wild fires, disrupting flights and increasing air pollution, environmental quality is a growing factor in attracting tourists.

 

Rooftop

Top 15 most spectacular hotel rooftop views

The hotel price comparison site www.trivago.co.uk has put together a list of the fifteen most spectacular hotel rooftop terraces in the world.

Latest offers, discounts and more...

Accor “3=2 offer”
Why not extend your stay? 3 nights for the price of 2.
Columbus Direct travel insurance
Quality cover at low prices to customers all around the world.
Priority pass
Access VIP lounges no matter where which airline and class you fly.
European City Cards
See more and pay less! Get your "passport" to European cities.
Rail Europe
Comfortable and affordable on European trains.
Lonely Planet Magazine
Packed with insider knowledge, hints and tips.
Sandemans New Europe City Tours
Free walking tours in 13 cities within 9 countries.
Sol Melia Wednesdays
Search your exclusive special offers now for the coming weekend!
Transfers
Low-cost shuttle and private transfers in over 70 countries.
IMEX Frankfurt 25-27 May
The essential worldwide exhibition for incentive travel, meetings and events.
Subscribe to Travelio News Summary via RSS Follow our news titles on Twitter Become a fan of Travelio.net on Facebook Bookmark and Share