New long term forecast for Europe - 80% increase in flights by 2030
Wednesday 26, January 2011
EUROCONTROL has released a new long-time forecast of flights in Europe. In the most likely of the four scenarios considered, air traffic in Europe is expected to grow to 16.9 million flights in 2030, i.e. 1.8 times more than in 2009.
Air transport planners need to take a long-term view, whether they are at airports, airlines or in the SESAR programme, which is delivering Europe’s air traffic management system for the 2020s. After the turbulence of 2008 and 2009, this biennial update of the long-term flight forecast aims to help planners to refine their route to the future.
The average annual growth is likely to be between 1.6% and 3.9%, leading to between 13.1 and 20.9 million flights in 2030. For the first time, the forecast includes a scenario on how air traffic might develop when the supply of oil has peaked. According to the forecast, growth will be faster in the early years, stronger in Eastern Europe and for arrivals and departures to and from outside Europe than for intra-European flights, Turkey being the largest generator of extra flights in European and Germany seeing the biggest number of additional flights in its airspace.
“There is growth to come over the next 20 years but it may look quite different from what we have been used to”, said David Marsh, Head of Forecasting. Each market segment will be different, long-haul different from short-haul and each part of Europe will be different”, he adds.
Growth will however be limited by airport capacity: Between 0.7 and 5 million flights will be unaccommodated in 2030, representing from 5% to 19% of the demand. In addition to unaccommodated demand, airport capacity constraints have an effect on the flow of operations in the network. The decline in traffic in 2008 and 2009 has eased the pressure on airport capacity but, in the longer- term, the demand will grow and airports will not always be able to fully respond. The network will be more vulnerable to delays that will propagate more rapidly and widely.
“The long-term forecast contains pointers that even today the Network Management Function will need to consider when planning how to improve performance in this growing environment and to achieve the EU performance targets”, concludes David Marsh.
Download the Long-Term Forecast: www.eurocontrol.int/statfor
Latest news
Tourism
Business travelers want latest technology and best gadgets
Auckland Zoo named one of NZ elite tourist attractions
Caribbean and Mediterranean losing beach tourism market to Southeast Asia
Aviation
Boeing: China will lead the Asia Pacific region in new airplane deliveries
British Airways begins installing new seats in Euro Traveller cabin
American Airlines drops free meals on short haul flights
Hospitality
First capsule hostel to open in Antwerp, Belgium
Marriott named to World's Most Innovative Companies List
Marriott Hotels debuts - healthy vending machine
Find the best deals available today
The grey menu on the right is your best friend. Always check before you travel.
Plan your trips with the help of great resources
More and more travellers think that researching and planning a European city break is half the fun and they're not interested in pre-arranged trips or escorted tours. Self-guided tours offer a lot of advantages but require some guidance and good resources.
Clean, green and very pristine
Top 10 most environmentally pure countries
With the recent wild fires, disrupting flights and increasing air pollution, environmental quality is a growing factor in attracting tourists.
Rooftop
Top 15 most spectacular hotel rooftop views
The hotel price comparison site www.trivago.co.uk has put together a list of the fifteen most spectacular hotel rooftop terraces in the world.
Pro city guides
Places by themes
Latest offers, discounts and more...
Accor “3=2 offerâ€Why not extend your stay? 3 nights for the price of 2.
Columbus Direct travel insuranceQuality cover at low prices to customers all around the world.
Priority passAccess VIP lounges no matter where which airline and class you fly.
European City CardsSee more and pay less! Get your "passport" to European cities.
Rail EuropeComfortable and affordable on European trains.
Lonely Planet MagazinePacked with insider knowledge, hints and tips.
Sandemans New Europe City ToursFree walking tours in 13 cities within 9 countries.
Sol Melia WednesdaysSearch your exclusive special offers now for the coming weekend!
TransfersLow-cost shuttle and private transfers in over 70 countries.
IMEX Frankfurt 25-27 MayThe essential worldwide exhibition for incentive travel, meetings and events.
